Huw Pill doubts the market's four-hike path for the Bank of England, while Megan Greene reads the IMF's upgrade of UK 2026 growth to 1.3% as a case for tighter policy. Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.
Huw Pill, who voted for a September hike to 4%, told a Citi event in Bangkok that 100 basis points of tightening would still need a clearer inflation shock. Source
The Bank of England (BoE) has stopped debating whether to raise rates and started arguing about how far. At the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, chief economist Huw Pill said he is "a little bit more sceptical" that policy must follow market pricing to four quarter-point increases. "To get to 100 basis points, then I do think we probably need to see some more concrete manifestation of these risks," he said. That carries weight because Pill is one of the three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members who voted for a rise to 4% in September, when the committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6 to 3.
