US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 13.1 basis points, and markets now put an October Fed rate hike at roughly even odds.
Joey Politano’s CPI series puts September’s 3.7% headline at the second-highest year-over-year pace since 2023, with core also lifting to 2.6%. Source
September's Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had headline inflation at 3.7% year over year, against a 3.6% consensus and 3.4% in August. The monthly gain was 0.6% (unrounded 0.649%), in line with the Investing.com consensus and above the 0.58% bank median. Core was the problem: 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected, and 2.6% on the year against 2.5%. According to Bloomberg and ZeroHedge, that one-tenth miss pushed the two-year Treasury yield up 13.1 basis points to 4.92% and lifted October hike odds to roughly 50%.
