Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Small businesses borrow at 8.2% while the Fed argues over the next hike

Small businesses paid an average 8.2% on short-term loans in September, according to the National Federation of Independent Business survey, as Fed officials Hammack and Waller split on whether more tightening is needed before Wednesday's consumer price data.

🇺🇸 Small businesses borrow at 8.2% while the Fed argues over the next hike
Small businesses paid an average 8.2% on short-term loans in September, according to the National Federation of Independent Business survey, as Fed officials Hammack and Waller split on whether more tightening is needed before Wednesday's consumer price data.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 German inflation at 3.3% is a fuel story, and Berlin is already shrinking it

Germany's September inflation held at 3.3%, with motor fuel up 37.1% and core steady at 2.4%. Fuel-tax cuts in Germany and France will pull the headline down just as the European Central Bank weighs a December hike.

🇪🇺 German inflation at 3.3% is a fuel story, and Berlin is already shrinking it
Germany's September inflation held at 3.3%, with motor fuel up 37.1% and core steady at 2.4%. Fuel-tax cuts in Germany and France will pull the headline down just as the European Central Bank weighs a December hike.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Bank of England hawks and UK households are reading different datasets

Megan Greene wants Bank Rate above 3.75% and the IMF has lifted UK 2026 growth to 1.3%. Barclays card spending rose only 2.0% in September, a real-terms fall, and Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.

🇬🇧 Bank of England hawks and UK households are reading different datasets
Megan Greene wants Bank Rate above 3.75% and the IMF has lifted UK 2026 growth to 1.3%. Barclays card spending rose only 2.0% in September, a real-terms fall, and Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.
Macro Soup

🌏 The IMF's 3.7% emerging-market forecast is an average of two different economies

The IMF cut 2026 emerging-market growth to 3.7%, but the average hides a split. Taiwan went up to 10.7% and India to 7.0%, while Russia, Brazil and South Africa were cut despite high commodity prices.

🌏 The IMF's 3.7% emerging-market forecast is an average of two different economies
The IMF cut 2026 emerging-market growth to 3.7%, but the average hides a split. Taiwan went up to 10.7% and India to 7.0%, while Russia, Brazil and South Africa were cut despite high commodity prices.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's yuan is at three-year highs while its stocks sink to 13-month lows

China's central bank set the yuan's daily fixing at 6.7298 per dollar, its strongest since February 2023, while the CSI 300 stock index slid to a 13-month low. Wednesday's September producer price data is expected to show a 4.5% annual rise.

🇨🇳 China's yuan is at three-year highs while its stocks sink to 13-month lows
China's central bank set the yuan's daily fixing at 6.7298 per dollar, its strongest since February 2023, while the CSI 300 stock index slid to a 13-month low. Wednesday's September producer price data is expected to show a 4.5% annual rise.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.