China's September exports rose 36.3% and factory-gate prices 5.0%, the fastest since 2022, yet consumer prices gained only 0.9% and household loans were flat. The PBOC must now balance a firm yuan against weak domestic demand before Monday's third-quarter GDP.
Christophe Barraud notes high-tech shipments jumped 63.7% and supplied about half of September export growth as China moves further up the value chain. Source
September's trade data looked like a boom. Customs reported exports of $447.18bn, up 36.3% year on year against a forecast near 25.5%, the fastest growth since February's 39.6%. Imports rose 31.0% to a record $313.65bn, and the surplus widened to $133.53bn, a 20-month high. The surpluses with the US ($34.01bn) and the EU ($34.8bn), the two that carry political weight, are also at 20-month highs. The January to September surplus stands at $938.11bn, about $62bn short of $1tn, a gap China would close in less than half a month at September's pace. The credit and consumer-price data released the same day describe a different economy.
