Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 One tenth of a point on core CPI has put an October Fed hike at even odds

US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 13.1 basis points, and markets now put an October Fed rate hike at roughly even odds.

🇺🇸 One tenth of a point on core CPI has put an October Fed hike at even odds
US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 13.1 basis points, and markets now put an October Fed rate hike at roughly even odds.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 German wholesale inflation hits 8.7%, and the ECB can see it coming

German wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September against a 0.6% forecast, taking the annual rate to 8.7%, the largest increase since February 2023. Energy costs are spreading into metals, grain and chemicals, and Lagarde says the ECB cannot wait for second-round effects.

🇪🇺 German wholesale inflation hits 8.7%, and the ECB can see it coming
German wholesale prices rose 1.9% in September against a 0.6% forecast, taking the annual rate to 8.7%, the largest increase since February 2023. Energy costs are spreading into metals, grain and chemicals, and Lagarde says the ECB cannot wait for second-round effects.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Pill doubts the market's four hikes while Greene reads the IMF upgrade as a case for 4%

Huw Pill doubts the market's four-hike path for the Bank of England, while Megan Greene reads the IMF's upgrade of UK 2026 growth to 1.3% as a case for tighter policy. Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.

🇬🇧 Pill doubts the market's four hikes while Greene reads the IMF upgrade as a case for 4%
Huw Pill doubts the market's four-hike path for the Bank of England, while Megan Greene reads the IMF's upgrade of UK 2026 growth to 1.3% as a case for tighter policy. Thursday's August GDP print is the first test.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's wholesale inflation is running at twice the retail rate, and retail hasn't caught up yet

India's September wholesale inflation hit 11.39%, about double the 5.54% consumer price print, which points to more pass-through after the central bank's hike. In Brazil, economists raised inflation forecasts but cut policy-rate calls ahead of the election runoff.

🌏 India's wholesale inflation is running at twice the retail rate, and retail hasn't caught up yet
India's September wholesale inflation hit 11.39%, about double the 5.54% consumer price print, which points to more pass-through after the central bank's hike. In Brazil, economists raised inflation forecasts but cut policy-rate calls ahead of the election runoff.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's export boom and 5.0% factory inflation bypass households

China's September exports rose 36.3% and factory-gate prices 5.0%, the fastest since 2022, yet consumer prices gained only 0.9% and household loans were flat. The PBOC must now balance a firm yuan against weak domestic demand before Monday's third-quarter GDP.

🇨🇳 China's export boom and 5.0% factory inflation bypass households
China's September exports rose 36.3% and factory-gate prices 5.0%, the fastest since 2022, yet consumer prices gained only 0.9% and household loans were flat. The PBOC must now balance a firm yuan against weak domestic demand before Monday's third-quarter GDP.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.