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♟️ Hormuz tanker strikes expose the deniability gap in Iran's leaderless ceasefire

♟️ Markets are pricing an Iran peace dividend that Israel hasn't endorsed

♟️ Oil markets crowd a best-case Iran settlement the Islamabad MOU cannot yet guarantee

♟️ Iran shot down a US Apache, Washington struck back within 24 hours, and the G7 couldn't hold the room on Ukraine

♟️ Lebanon strikes crack the Iran ceasefire and hand Trump a Netanyahu problem he cannot solve

♟️ Oil priced the deal; Lebanon just sent the invoice

🌐 Hong Kong has overtaken Switzerland as the world's top offshore wealth hub. The $10 billion gap is the least interesting part.

🌐 Spain loses the Shakira case and €60 million. Turkey is paying attention.

🌐 Geopolitics, 12-05-2026: The Hormuz closure turned Trump's Beijing summit into an energy negotiation, and Washington has the stronger hand

🌍 The oil market ran on two unspoken guarantees for 50 years. Both just broke.

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