🌏 EM central banks are fracturing along the current account fault line
🌏 SARB's 4-2 hike leaves the harder question to May CPI
🌏 SARB holds at 6.75% for a third straight meeting as April CPI spikes 90bps. The Iran war is closing EM central banks' easing room.
🌏 The EM recovery rested on three pillars. All three are cracking.
🌏 South Africa's leading index is at 123.0 and rising. The SARB may hike despite the recovery its own data is signaling.
🌏 India WPI at 8.30% is a 42-month high, and Hormuz has turned a Gulf supply shock into a central bank problem across EM
🌏 EM's synchronized easing cycle is coming apart faster than markets priced
🌏 EM central banks can't cut their way out of the 2026 oil shock
🌏 India's April CPI prints at 3.4%, and every other macro variable is pointing the same direction
🌏 Brazil's wholesale prices are running hot again, and India's banks have a funding problem
