Welcome to your weekly macro roundup. This comprehensive edition covers the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets with in-depth analysis of the week's most significant economic developments and what they mean for markets ahead.

🇺🇸 The Fed hikes into a housing market that's already rolling over

The Fed raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh wouldn't call policy restrictive, even with builder sentiment at a one-year low and regional factory surveys weakening.

🇺🇸 The Fed hikes into a housing market that's already rolling over
The Fed raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and Chair Kevin Warsh wouldn't call policy restrictive, even with builder sentiment at a one-year low and regional factory surveys weakening.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB hiked to 2.50%, but its own inflation anchor is already slipping

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September even as its own survey showed three-year inflation expectations climbing to 2.9%, and consumer prices split sharply across the currency bloc, from 2.6% in France to 4.6% in Spain.

🇪🇺 The ECB hiked to 2.50%, but its own inflation anchor is already slipping
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September even as its own survey showed three-year inflation expectations climbing to 2.9%, and consumer prices split sharply across the currency bloc, from 2.6% in France to 4.6% in Spain.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The BoE held at 3.75%, but three dissents put a hike back on the table

The BoE held at 3.75% on 17 September, but three of nine committee members voted for an immediate hike to 4.00% as UK inflation climbed to 3.1% on energy costs. It also slowed its bond-holdings runoff, stretching QT out to 2034.

🇬🇧 The BoE held at 3.75%, but three dissents put a hike back on the table
The BoE held at 3.75% on 17 September, but three of nine committee members voted for an immediate hike to 4.00% as UK inflation climbed to 3.1% on energy costs. It also slowed its bond-holdings runoff, stretching QT out to 2034.
Macro Soup

🌏 Emerging markets are no longer moving as one bloc against the Fed

Brazil cut rates to 13.75%, Turkey held at 37%, and South Korea moved toward another hike, all in the same week the Fed raised its rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Emerging-market policy is splitting along domestic lines, not tracking Washington.

🌏 Emerging markets are no longer moving as one bloc against the Fed
Brazil cut rates to 13.75%, Turkey held at 37%, and South Korea moved toward another hike, all in the same week the Fed raised its rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Emerging-market policy is splitting along domestic lines, not tracking Washington.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's three growth engines are stalling at once, and trade is the only one still firing

Credit, investment and fiscal spending are all slowing in China at once, bank loan growth down to a record 4.9% and youth unemployment at 18.9%, even as exports jumped 25.0% ahead of the September 24 Xi-Trump meeting.

🇨🇳 China's three growth engines are stalling at once, and trade is the only one still firing
Credit, investment and fiscal spending are all slowing in China at once, bank loan growth down to a record 4.9% and youth unemployment at 18.9%, even as exports jumped 25.0% ahead of the September 24 Xi-Trump meeting.
Macro Soup

That wraps up this week's macro roundup. We'll be back with daily updates throughout the week and another comprehensive weekly edition next time. If you know someone who would appreciate this analysis, feel free to share. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.