Brazil paused at a 13.75% Selic despite a real-rate cushion of about 9 points, Mexico cut to 6.25% on a split vote, and the Czech central bank hiked to 4.00%. One fuel shock, three different answers.
Banxico framed the 25bp cut as a one-time adjustment after a 3-2 vote, signalling an extended hold even as Q4 inflation forecasts were lifted to 3.7%. Source
Three central banks, 48 hours, one fuel shock. Mexico cut, Brazil stopped cutting and the Czech Republic hiked. What separated them was how much real-rate cushion each had left.
