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πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Euro area factories are still shrinking, and Lagarde tells Paris the fix is at home
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The day in view

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Euro area factories are still shrinking, and Lagarde tells Paris the fix is at home

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom October 15, 2026 4 min read
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Euro area industrial production fell 0.5% in August, the third straight monthly drop, while inflation reached 3.3% in Germany and 3.1% in France. Lagarde says France has to solve its bond-market problem at home, not through ECB buying.

Line chart of industrial production index (2021=100) from 2021 to 2026 for Total IP and Total IP ex.
Moody's Analytics notes that euro-area factory output excluding autos and pharma rose again in August and sits at its highest level since December 2023, even as headline production posted a third straight monthly drop. Source
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Euro area industrial production fell 0.5% in August from July, Eurostat reported, against a forecast of 0.0% (previous: βˆ’0.3%, revised from βˆ’0.1%). That makes three monthly declines in a row. The annual rate came in at βˆ’1.1% versus a forecast of βˆ’0.1%, with July revised to βˆ’0.3% from zero. Output is shrinking just as energy pushes headline inflation back above 3%, and that pairing is what makes the ECB's next move so hard.

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