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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's bond market is betting on weak credit, not 5% factory inflation
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The day in view

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's bond market is betting on weak credit, not 5% factory inflation

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom October 15, 2026 3 min read
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M2 growth slowed to an 18-month low of 7.2% and yuan loan growth hit a record-low 4.8%. The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.65% anyway, a day after factory-gate inflation reached 5.0%.

Line and bar chart of China CPI YoY (blue), PPI YoY (red), and PPI minus CPI (yellow bars) from 2017 through 2026.
MacroMicro’s read is that oil and mining are driving factory-gate prices while downstream firms absorb the cost, leaving the PPI–CPI gap at its widest since May 2022. Source
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Producer prices hit 5.0%. A day later the money data went the other way. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) financial statistics showed M2, the broad money supply, growing 7.2%, down from 7.5%. That is an 18-month low and under the 7.4% Reuters forecast. M1, the narrower measure of cash and demand deposits, slowed to 3.2% from 4.1%. Outstanding yuan loans grew 4.8%, which Reuters described as a record low.

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Tags
  • tag United States United States
  • tag China China
  • tag Europe Europe
  • tag United Kingdom United Kingdom
  • tag Emerging Markets Emerging Markets
Socials
  • X
Featured Post The day in view

πŸ“° Daily Macro Roundup: 2026-10-15

Oct 15, 2026 3 min read
Paid Post The day in view

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