Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Quits are up, layoffs are down, and Treasury has quietly dropped two words from its guidance

September job openings rose to 7.52m against 7.16m expected, with the quits rate up to 2.1% and layoffs lower. Treasury also dropped "at least" from its auction-size guidance, which points to bigger coupon sales in 2027.

🇺🇸 Quits are up, layoffs are down, and Treasury has quietly dropped two words from its guidance
September job openings rose to 7.52m against 7.16m expected, with the quits rate up to 2.1% and layoffs lower. Treasury also dropped "at least" from its auction-size guidance, which points to bigger coupon sales in 2027.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Euro area inflation is at 4%, and the hawks want to hike on a forecast

Euro area inflation hit 4.0% in October on 20.8% energy, with core flat at 2.5%. Markets still price an 85% chance of a December ECB hike, and the Bundesbank's Nagel and the Riksbank are both leaning on forecasts, not wage data.

🇪🇺 Euro area inflation is at 4%, and the hawks want to hike on a forecast
Euro area inflation hit 4.0% in October on 20.8% energy, with core flat at 2.5%. Markets still price an 85% chance of a December ECB hike, and the Bundesbank's Nagel and the Riksbank are both leaning on forecasts, not wage data.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 October's UK PMIs give both hawks and doves something to cite before Thursday's Bank of England hike

UK services PMI reached an eight-month high of 52.8 in October, and services staffing rose above 50 for the first time since September 2024. Easing selling prices give the doves cover ahead of Thursday's expected Bank of England hike to 4.00%.

🇬🇧 October's UK PMIs give both hawks and doves something to cite before Thursday's Bank of England hike
UK services PMI reached an eight-month high of 52.8 in October, and services staffing rose above 50 for the first time since September 2024. Easing selling prices give the doves cover ahead of Thursday's expected Bank of England hike to 4.00%.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's forecasters are pricing the oil bill that Korea and South Africa are hiding

Brazil's Focus survey lifted the 2027 inflation forecast to 4.76% from 4.34% ahead of Wednesday's central bank decision. A fuel price cap held South Korea's October inflation at 2.8% instead of 3.6%, and Turkish inflation rose to 29.77%.

🌏 Brazil's forecasters are pricing the oil bill that Korea and South Africa are hiding
Brazil's Focus survey lifted the 2027 inflation forecast to 4.76% from 4.34% ahead of Wednesday's central bank decision. A fuel price cap held South Korea's October inflation at 2.8% instead of 3.6%, and Turkish inflation rose to 29.77%.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Beijing is cutting the price of money, slowing the yuan and draining cash all at once

China's central bank cut its overnight funding rate to 1.25% and its buyback relending rate to 1.00%, yet drained a net RMB1.36tn and lifted banks' FX reserve requirement to 6% from 4% to slow the yuan. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3.

🇨🇳 Beijing is cutting the price of money, slowing the yuan and draining cash all at once
China's central bank cut its overnight funding rate to 1.25% and its buyback relending rate to 1.00%, yet drained a net RMB1.36tn and lifted banks' FX reserve requirement to 6% from 4% to slow the yuan. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.