Brazil's Focus survey lifted the 2027 inflation forecast to 4.76% from 4.34% ahead of Wednesday's central bank decision. A fuel price cap held South Korea's October inflation at 2.8% instead of 3.6%, and Turkish inflation rose to 29.77%.
Copom’s first post-election meeting arrives with B3 options implying a 72.5% chance of holding the Selic at 13.75% after Lula’s re-election lifted the Focus path for inflation and long rates. Source
The far end of the curve moved most in Brazil's Focus survey, the first since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election. The median forecast for 2027 IPCA, Brazil's official headline consumer price index, jumped to 4.76% from 4.34% in a week. The 2028 median rose to 4.00% from 3.75%, while the 2026 median barely moved, to 5.22% from 5.19%. Forecasters are not revising the print they can see. They are revising the one the central bank has to steer.
