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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ October's UK PMIs give both hawks and doves something to cite before Thursday's Bank of England hike
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The day in view

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ October's UK PMIs give both hawks and doves something to cite before Thursday's Bank of England hike

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom November 4, 2026 4 min read
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UK services PMI reached an eight-month high of 52.8 in October, and services staffing rose above 50 for the first time since September 2024. Easing selling prices give the doves cover ahead of Thursday's expected Bank of England hike to 4.00%.

Bar and line chart of UK PMI Composite Output Index and GDP from Jan 2023 to Oct 2026, with a 2024 election marker.
Julian Jessop says October’s strongest composite PMI since February, a first positive employment reading since Reeves’ Budget, and faster input-cost inflation add to the case for a Bank Rate hike on Thursday. Source
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Thursday's Bank of England meeting arrives with data for both camps. The final S&P Global services PMI for October printed at 52.8, below the 53.1 flash estimate (previous: 52.1). It is still an eight-month high and a fourth straight month above 50, though short of the 54.2 long-run average. The composite came in at 52.9 (previous: 52.0), also under its 53.1 flash. The headline disappointed a little. The detail didn't.

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