Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Q3 growth was hot and inflation was cool, but the Fed is looking at September

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two dissenters wanting a hike, while Q3 GDP beat at 3.4%. September told a different story: flat real consumer spending and headline PCE inflation of 3.6%, which keeps a December hike in play.

🇺🇸 Q3 growth was hot and inflation was cool, but the Fed is looking at September
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two dissenters wanting a hike, while Q3 GDP beat at 3.4%. September told a different story: flat real consumer spending and headline PCE inflation of 3.6%, which keeps a December hike in play.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB held at 2.50%, Lagarde is leaving, and markets still price an 82% chance of a December hike

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% as Christine Lagarde said she will step down in February 2027. Markets still price an 82% chance of a December hike, even as bank credit tightens and French consumer confidence hits a 13-year low.

🇪🇺 The ECB held at 2.50%, Lagarde is leaving, and markets still price an 82% chance of a December hike
The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% as Christine Lagarde said she will step down in February 2027. Markets still price an 82% chance of a December hike, even as bank credit tightens and French consumer confidence hits a 13-year low.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK companies are borrowing their way through the energy shock while households retrench

Bank of England data show large UK firms borrowed £8.2bn from banks in September, more than double August, while mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 53,400, the lowest since December 2023. The 5 November rate decision sits between the two.

🇬🇧 UK companies are borrowing their way through the energy shock while households retrench
Bank of England data show large UK firms borrowed £8.2bn from banks in September, more than double August, while mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 53,400, the lowest since December 2023. The 5 November rate decision sits between the two.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's soft IGP-M print missed the real's slide, and oil is already showing up in EM producer prices

Brazil's October IGP-M rose 1.47% against a 1.60% forecast, but the data predate the real's roughly 8% fall after the runoff. Malaysian producer prices at 12.0% and South Africa's PPI at 6.2% show the oil shock is already landing.

🌏 Brazil's soft IGP-M print missed the real's slide, and oil is already showing up in EM producer prices
Brazil's October IGP-M rose 1.47% against a 1.60% forecast, but the data predate the real's roughly 8% fall after the runoff. Malaysian producer prices at 12.0% and South Africa's PPI at 6.2% show the oil shock is already landing.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Zhuhai Huafa's missed payments push China's credit stress up to a city-owned group, and Beijing keeps the cash coming

Guangdong-owned Zhuhai Huafa missed trust payments and sought bank extensions, and one of its offshore bonds fell a record 17%. The PBOC is adding CNY1tn a day in overnight cash, and five-year government yields hit a record low of 1.34%.

🇨🇳 Zhuhai Huafa's missed payments push China's credit stress up to a city-owned group, and Beijing keeps the cash coming
Guangdong-owned Zhuhai Huafa missed trust payments and sought bank extensions, and one of its offshore bonds fell a record 17%. The PBOC is adding CNY1tn a day in overnight cash, and five-year government yields hit a record low of 1.34%.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.