Brazil's October IGP-M rose 1.47% against a 1.60% forecast, but the data predate the real's roughly 8% fall after the runoff. Malaysian producer prices at 12.0% and South Africa's PPI at 6.2% show the oil shock is already landing.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term with 51.8% of Sunday’s runoff, a result that reversed the real’s first-round rally and pushed USD/BRL toward 5.60 on Monday. Source
October's inflation print landed after the shock it was meant to capture. The General Market Price Index (IGP-M), compiled by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), rose 1.47% on the month against a 1.60% median estimate and 1.57% in September. The 12-month rate was 5.24%, below a 5.35% median. USD/BRL, meanwhile, went from 4.97 on the Friday before Sunday's runoff to a Monday close near 5.40, after an intraday spike above 5.60, per Commerzbank. On Thursday it traded near 5.36, which leaves the real roughly 8% weaker than before the vote.
