Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The bond market is tightening housing while the Fed barely moves

Housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual rate in September, and builder sentiment hit 29, its lowest since 2012. With mortgage rates at 7.40%, the bond market is squeezing housing harder than the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% policy rate.

🇺🇸 The bond market is tightening housing while the Fed barely moves
Housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual rate in September, and builder sentiment hit 29, its lowest since 2012. With mortgage rates at 7.40%, the bond market is squeezing housing harder than the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% policy rate.
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🇪🇺 German factory prices hit a three-year high while consumer goods get cheaper

German producer prices rose 6.7% year-on-year in September, the fastest since March 2023, as energy jumped 14.9%. Excluding energy they rose just 0.1% on the month and food fell 4.1%, which suggests margins are absorbing the cost shock as the ECB weighs its next move.

🇪🇺 German factory prices hit a three-year high while consumer goods get cheaper
German producer prices rose 6.7% year-on-year in September, the fastest since March 2023, as energy jumped 14.9%. Excluding energy they rose just 0.1% on the month and food fell 4.1%, which suggests margins are absorbing the cost shock as the ECB weighs its next move.
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🇬🇧 UK unemployment fell to 4.7%, but the rest of the release tells a cooler story

UK unemployment fell to 4.7% against a 4.9% forecast, but vacancies dropped below 700,000 for the first time since 2021 and private-sector pay growth slowed to 3.0%. September inflation data lands a day later, with a Bank of England hike priced.

🇬🇧 UK unemployment fell to 4.7%, but the rest of the release tells a cooler story
UK unemployment fell to 4.7% against a 4.9% forecast, but vacancies dropped below 700,000 for the first time since 2021 and private-sector pay growth slowed to 3.0%. September inflation data lands a day later, with a Bank of England hike priced.
Macro Soup

🌏 Jakarta's rebound came from rule changes, and Bank Indonesia now has to say what rates are for

Jakarta's index rebounded 5.7% to 5,278.89 after the exchange cut its daily loss limit to 7% and moved to strip out concentrated holdings. Bank Indonesia decides Wednesday, and forecasts run from a hold to a 50 basis point hike.

🌏 Jakarta's rebound came from rule changes, and Bank Indonesia now has to say what rates are for
Jakarta's index rebounded 5.7% to 5,278.89 after the exchange cut its daily loss limit to 7% and moved to strip out concentrated holdings. Bank Indonesia decides Wednesday, and forecasts run from a hold to a 50 basis point hike.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's growth beat arrives with a bigger import bill

China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, beating a 4.4% forecast, but nine-month imports rose 22.3% against 16.4% for exports, as input prices climbed 6.9%. The trade surplus gained just 3.5%. The central bank held its benchmark lending rates for a 17th straight time.

🇨🇳 China's growth beat arrives with a bigger import bill
China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5%, beating a 4.4% forecast, but nine-month imports rose 22.3% against 16.4% for exports, as input prices climbed 6.9%. The trade surplus gained just 3.5%. The central bank held its benchmark lending rates for a 17th straight time.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.