Housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual rate in September, and builder sentiment hit 29, its lowest since 2012. With mortgage rates at 7.40%, the bond market is squeezing housing harder than the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% policy rate.
NAHB’s Census-based series puts September starts at a 1.221 million pace, missing the 1.305 million consensus as builder confidence sits at 29, the weakest since 2012. Source
Housing starts dropped 5.2% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million, against roughly 1.30 million expected, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). August was revised to −5.9% from −2.6%. Some coverage put starts "near COVID lows." They aren't. The April 2020 trough was around 934,000, and September sits only modestly above May's 1.182 million. Census's own 90% interval on the monthly change is ±11.8 points, so the move can't be told apart from zero.
