Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh won't guide, so the data has to, and it points both ways

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance before the October 27 to 28 FOMC. Headline CPI hit 3.7% on gasoline, but services inflation excluding housing is running at a 4.6% annualized pace, which keeps a December hike in play.

🇺🇸 Warsh won't guide, so the data has to, and it points both ways
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance before the October 27 to 28 FOMC. Headline CPI hit 3.7% on gasoline, but services inflation excluding housing is running at a 4.6% annualized pace, which keeps a December hike in play.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB is letting French bond yields do its tightening for it

After a weekend of riots, French 10-year yields rose 7.8 basis points to 4.87% and the spread over Bunds widened to 145 basis points. The European Central Bank is treating higher long-term rates as tightening, and markets price about a 20% chance of an October hike.

🇪🇺 The ECB is letting French bond yields do its tightening for it
After a weekend of riots, French 10-year yields rose 7.8 basis points to 4.87% and the spread over Bunds widened to 145 basis points. The European Central Bank is treating higher long-term rates as tightening, and markets price about a 20% chance of an October hike.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 This week's UK jobs and CPI data will show who is paying for the energy shock

Tuesday's UK jobs data and Wednesday's September CPI, forecast at 3.4% from 3.1%, will test Bailey's claim that firms are absorbing the energy shock. Markets price a roughly 91% chance of a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.

🇬🇧 This week's UK jobs and CPI data will show who is paying for the energy shock
Tuesday's UK jobs data and Wednesday's September CPI, forecast at 3.4% from 3.1%, will test Bailey's claim that firms are absorbing the energy shock. Markets price a roughly 91% chance of a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.
Macro Soup

🌏 Malaysia's exports jumped 54.5% and barely touched prices, while Jakarta's rout runs into a second day

Malaysia's September exports rose 54.5% year-on-year against a 44.6% forecast, and inflation still eased to 1.8%. Jakarta stocks fell another 3.6% to below 5,000 before Wednesday's Bank Indonesia decision.

🌏 Malaysia's exports jumped 54.5% and barely touched prices, while Jakarta's rout runs into a second day
Malaysia's September exports rose 54.5% year-on-year against a 44.6% forecast, and inflation still eased to 1.8%. Jakarta stocks fell another 3.6% to below 5,000 before Wednesday's Bank Indonesia decision.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China beat on growth, and the central bank spent the day preparing for a bond selloff

China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, beating a 4.4% forecast. The same day, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to make the overnight repo rate the main policy rate and to build a liquidity backstop against a bond selloff.

🇨🇳 China beat on growth, and the central bank spent the day preparing for a bond selloff
China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, beating a 4.4% forecast. The same day, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to make the overnight repo rate the main policy rate and to build a liquidity backstop against a bond selloff.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.