Tuesday's UK jobs data and Wednesday's September CPI, forecast at 3.4% from 3.1%, will test Bailey's claim that firms are absorbing the energy shock. Markets price a roughly 91% chance of a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.
UK Property Insight says Rightmove’s 1% October bounce still leaves the trend flat, with the portal consistently the slowest of the main UK house-price gauges. Source
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in Bangkok on Friday that second-round effects from higher energy prices have been "quite subdued" so far, and that the firms he meets are focused on cutting costs. Those are two sides of one story. If companies absorb the shock by trimming costs, it should show up in hiring and pay before it reaches prices. This week's data can tell us which reading is right, ahead of the Bank's 5 November decision. Money markets price roughly a 91% chance of a quarter-point rise from the 3.75% Bank Rate, although that had eased slightly by Monday.
