Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The Fed is about to hike, but the dot plot decides if it stops there

The Fed is expected to raise rates 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike in three years, after hot August CPI and PPI prints. The dot plot and Chair Warsh's press conference decide whether it stops there.

🇺🇸 The Fed is about to hike, but the dot plot decides if it stops there
The Fed is expected to raise rates 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike in three years, after hot August CPI and PPI prints. The dot plot and Chair Warsh's press conference decide whether it stops there.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Europe's data beat forecasts this week, its mood did not

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called energy prices "quite concerning" as Germany's investor sentiment survey split: current conditions jumped to −47.1, beating forecasts, the forward-looking gauge fell, and 10-year German bond yields climbed near 3.55%, the highest in over a decade.

🇪🇺 Europe's data beat forecasts this week, its mood did not
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called energy prices "quite concerning" as Germany's investor sentiment survey split: current conditions jumped to −47.1, beating forecasts, the forward-looking gauge fell, and 10-year German bond yields climbed near 3.55%, the highest in over a decade.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK jobs data just told the Bank of England two contradictory stories

UK's August Claimant Count surged 27.8k, far above the 8.3k forecast, while the Labour Force Survey unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. That leaves the Bank of England reading two contradictory signals days before Thursday's rate call and Wednesday's CPI print.

🇬🇧 UK jobs data just told the Bank of England two contradictory stories
UK's August Claimant Count surged 27.8k, far above the 8.3k forecast, while the Labour Force Survey unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. That leaves the Bank of England reading two contradictory signals days before Thursday's rate call and Wednesday's CPI print.
Macro Soup

🌏 Copom cuts as the Fed hikes, and emerging markets stop moving as one

Brazil's central bank cuts its Selic rate to 13.75% the same day the Fed is expected to hike, while India's central bank quietly tightens through bond sales even as its trade deficit narrows to $26.86bn. Emerging markets are no longer moving together.

🌏 Copom cuts as the Fed hikes, and emerging markets stop moving as one
Brazil's central bank cuts its Selic rate to 13.75% the same day the Fed is expected to hike, while India's central bank quietly tightens through bond sales even as its trade deficit narrows to $26.86bn. Emerging markets are no longer moving together.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's industrial boom is leaving workers behind

China's industrial output beat forecasts in August, but retail sales slowed and new bank lending collapsed to just ¥60bn. Automation-heavy factory growth isn't translating into jobs or household spending.

🇨🇳 China's industrial boom is leaving workers behind
China's industrial output beat forecasts in August, but retail sales slowed and new bank lending collapsed to just ¥60bn. Automation-heavy factory growth isn't translating into jobs or household spending.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.