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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ UK jobs data just told the Bank of England two contradictory stories

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ UK jobs data just told the Bank of England two contradictory stories

UK's August Claimant Count surged 27.8k, far above the 8.3k forecast, while the Labour Force Survey unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. That leaves the Bank of England reading two contradictory signals days before Thursday's rate call and Wednesday's CPI print.

Line chart of UK PAYE payrolled employees monthly change from 2016–2026, with 3-, 6- and 12-month moving averages.
PPG Macro notes that HMRC PAYE monthly changes have 3-, 6- and 12-month averages at series lows outside pandemic distortions, even as the LFS still shows employment rising. Source

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