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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed is about to hike, but the dot plot decides if it stops there

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed is about to hike, but the dot plot decides if it stops there

The Fed is expected to raise rates 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike in three years, after hot August CPI and PPI prints. The dot plot and Chair Warsh's press conference decide whether it stops there.

Line chart of September (red) and December (green) Fed rate-hike odds from early August through mid-September 2026, annotated CPI and Waller.
Hike odds jumped toward 90% for September 16 after five consecutive holds, with a second move by year-end priced near 65%. Source

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