Welcome to your weekly macro roundup. This comprehensive edition covers the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets with in-depth analysis of the week's most significant economic developments and what they mean for markets ahead.

🇺🇸 Two Fed officials wanted a hike, and the bigger question is who is financing the boom

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two votes for a hike. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% on a 20.9% jump in equipment investment, the saving rate sits at 3.8% and the 10-year yield hit 5.05%. Foreign borrowing is paying for the boom.

🇺🇸 Two Fed officials wanted a hike, and the bigger question is who is financing the boom
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two votes for a hike. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% on a 20.9% jump in equipment investment, the saving rate sits at 3.8% and the 10-year yield hit 5.05%. Foreign borrowing is paying for the boom.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB holds one rate for economies with inflation anywhere from 2.8% to 5.6%

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% and Lagarde said she will leave in February 2027. October inflation ran from 2.8% in Germany to 5.6% in Italy, while third-quarter euro area growth slowed to 0.4% with Ireland doing much of the lifting.

🇪🇺 The ECB holds one rate for economies with inflation anywhere from 2.8% to 5.6%
The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.50% and Lagarde said she will leave in February 2027. October inflation ran from 2.8% in Germany to 5.6% in Italy, while third-quarter euro area growth slowed to 0.4% with Ireland doing much of the lifting.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The Budget assumes a Bank Rate rise the Bank of England hasn't delivered

The Office for Budget Responsibility's October forecast assumes Bank Rate climbs from 3.75% to just over 4.25% by mid-2027. The fiscal margin is £15bn with a 56% chance of meeting the mandate, and the Bank of England votes on 5 November.

🇬🇧 The Budget assumes a Bank Rate rise the Bank of England hasn't delivered
The Office for Budget Responsibility's October forecast assumes Bank Rate climbs from 3.75% to just over 4.25% by mid-2027. The fiscal margin is £15bn with a 56% chance of meeting the mandate, and the Bank of England votes on 5 November.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's Treasury is doing the central bank's job while the rest of EM reaches for plumbing

Brazil's real fell 8.1% and the January 2029 interbank rate jumped to 15.25% after Lula's reelection, prompting R$31.6bn of Treasury bond buybacks in two days. The Philippines hiked a surprise 50 basis points while Turkey cut.

🌏 Brazil's Treasury is doing the central bank's job while the rest of EM reaches for plumbing
Brazil's real fell 8.1% and the January 2029 interbank rate jumped to 15.25% after Lula's reelection, prompting R$31.6bn of Treasury bond buybacks in two days. The Philippines hiked a surprise 50 basis points while Turkey cut.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Beijing is holding the yuan back as EU revaluation talks approach

The yuan hit 6.659 per dollar, its strongest since June 2022, yet the PBOC set its fix 590 pips weaker than estimates ahead of EU revaluation talks. It also made a 1.25% overnight repo rate its main policy rate.

🇨🇳 Beijing is holding the yuan back as EU revaluation talks approach
The yuan hit 6.659 per dollar, its strongest since June 2022, yet the PBOC set its fix 590 pips weaker than estimates ahead of EU revaluation talks. It also made a 1.25% overnight repo rate its main policy rate.
Macro Soup

That wraps up this week's macro roundup. We'll be back with daily updates throughout the week and another comprehensive weekly edition next time. If you know someone who would appreciate this analysis, feel free to share. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.