The Office for Budget Responsibility's October forecast assumes Bank Rate climbs from 3.75% to just over 4.25% by mid-2027. The fiscal margin is £15bn with a 56% chance of meeting the mandate, and the Bank of England votes on 5 November.
Chancellor John Healey after his first Autumn Budget, as the OBR cut 2027 growth by half a point and lifted its inflation path on higher energy prices. Source
The number that matters in the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) October forecast isn't in the Chancellor's speech. It's a Bank Rate path that averages 4.0% over 2026 and 2027 and peaks just over 4.25% by mid-2027, from a current rate of 3.75%. The Chancellor's 28 October Budget rests on a tightening the Bank of England hasn't delivered. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides on 5 November, a week after the Budget was published, so the fiscal arithmetic hangs on a meeting that hasn't happened yet.
