Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The Fed decides Wednesday, a day before the GDP and inflation data that would have settled the hike question

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, a day before Q3 GDP and September inflation data. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% against a 0.7% forecast, and Dallas Fed prices paid jumped to 55.3 with oil near $101.

🇺🇸 The Fed decides Wednesday, a day before the GDP and inflation data that would have settled the hike question
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, a day before Q3 GDP and September inflation data. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% against a 0.7% forecast, and Dallas Fed prices paid jumped to 55.3 with oil near $101.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Euro area banks are tightening and borrowers are pulling back, days before the ECB meets

A net 9% of euro area banks tightened business-loan standards in Q3, against 5% expected, and housing-loan demand fell a net 27%, the steepest drop since 2023. The ECB meets Thursday with its deposit rate at 2.50%.

🇪🇺 Euro area banks are tightening and borrowers are pulling back, days before the ECB meets
A net 9% of euro area banks tightened business-loan standards in Q3, against 5% expected, and housing-loan demand fell a net 27%, the steepest drop since 2023. The ECB meets Thursday with its deposit rate at 2.50%.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 Retailers are passing on costs just as gilt buyers stop soaking up the Budget

UK shop price inflation hit 2.1% in October against a 1.6% forecast, and a £4.5bn five-year gilt auction cleared at 5.04%, the highest yield on such a sale since 2008. Both landed on the eve of Chancellor John Healey's Budget.

🇬🇧 Retailers are passing on costs just as gilt buyers stop soaking up the Budget
UK shop price inflation hit 2.1% in October against a 1.6% forecast, and a £4.5bn five-year gilt auction cleared at 5.04%, the highest yield on such a sale since 2008. Both landed on the eve of Chancellor John Healey's Budget.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's real has its worst day since 1999, on the same day its external accounts print a two-year best

The dollar jumped 8.2% against the real and the Ibovespa fell 13.9% after Lula's runoff win, the real's worst day since 1999, while foreign direct investment hit $11.3bn. Korea's third-quarter GDP beat forecasts at 1.0%.

🌏 Brazil's real has its worst day since 1999, on the same day its external accounts print a two-year best
The dollar jumped 8.2% against the real and the Ibovespa fell 13.9% after Lula's runoff win, the real's worst day since 1999, while foreign direct investment hit $11.3bn. Korea's third-quarter GDP beat forecasts at 1.0%.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's 14.4% profit rebound rests on chips and commodities, and the PBOC is hedging

China's industrial profits rose 14.4% year-on-year in September, beating the 12% forecast, but electronics and raw materials account for the entire gain. The PBOC held rates and added overnight cash as five-year bond yields touched 1.34%.

🇨🇳 China's 14.4% profit rebound rests on chips and commodities, and the PBOC is hedging
China's industrial profits rose 14.4% year-on-year in September, beating the 12% forecast, but electronics and raw materials account for the entire gain. The PBOC held rates and added overnight cash as five-year bond yields touched 1.34%.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.