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🌏 Brazil's real has its worst day since 1999, on the same day its external accounts print a two-year best
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The day in view

🌏 Brazil's real has its worst day since 1999, on the same day its external accounts print a two-year best

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom October 27, 2026 4 min read
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The dollar jumped 8.2% against the real and the Ibovespa fell 13.9% after Lula's runoff win, the real's worst day since 1999, while foreign direct investment hit $11.3bn. Korea's third-quarter GDP beat forecasts at 1.0%.

Line chart from Nov 2025 to Oct 2026 of a series near 140k–220k, with a sharp drop at the right edge.
Brazilian banks led Monday's wipeout, with Banco do Brasil down nearly 30% as B3 tripped its first circuit breaker since the pandemic. Source
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Luiz InΓ‘cio Lula da Silva took Sunday's runoff with 51.79% to FlΓ‘vio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, and Brazil's markets spent Monday behaving as if the regime had changed. The dollar closed up 8.21% at R$5.403, the real's largest one-day fall since the January 1999 float. The Ibovespa lost 13.88% to 176,608, its worst session since 16 March 2020, and B3, the Brazilian exchange, halted cash trading for 30 minutes after a 10% drop. The intraday spike to R$5.605 was bigger, but the settled move is the one that counts. Bolsonaro hasn't conceded. He is asking the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to annul the result over the two-hour extension of polling hours.

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