Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Pending home sales just hit a record low, and the labor market hasn't noticed

US pending home sales fell 7.3% in September to 66.0, the lowest since records began in 2001, as 30-year mortgage rates reached 7.40%. Jobless claims of 199,000 show the job market is still strong ahead of the Fed's October 28 decision.

🇺🇸 Pending home sales just hit a record low, and the labor market hasn't noticed
US pending home sales fell 7.3% in September to 66.0, the lowest since records began in 2001, as 30-year mortgage rates reached 7.40%. Jobless claims of 199,000 show the job market is still strong ahead of the Fed's October 28 decision.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 France's 10-year yield hits 5% for the first time since 2002, and the ECB now has a spread problem on top of an inflation one

France's 10-year yield hit 5% for the first time since 2002, and its spread over Bunds moved toward 160 basis points. With oil-driven inflation running hot, the European Central Bank has to weigh more rate hikes against its bond-market backstop.

🇪🇺 France's 10-year yield hits 5% for the first time since 2002, and the ECB now has a spread problem on top of an inflation one
France's 10-year yield hit 5% for the first time since 2002, and its spread over Bunds moved toward 160 basis points. With oil-driven inflation running hot, the European Central Bank has to weigh more rate hikes against its bond-market backstop.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK inflation at 3.5% hands the Treasury the bill before the Bank acts

UK inflation hit 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% and above the 3.4% forecast, driven by fuel. Record debt interest and net debt above £3tn crowd the 28 October Budget, and a Bank of England hike on 5 November is almost fully priced.

🇬🇧 UK inflation at 3.5% hands the Treasury the bill before the Bank acts
UK inflation hit 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% and above the 3.4% forecast, driven by fuel. Record debt interest and net debt above £3tn crowd the 28 October Budget, and a Bank of England hike on 5 November is almost fully priced.
Macro Soup

🌏 Central banks hold the line while Pretoria and Brasília spend ahead of ballots

Bank Indonesia held at 5.75% but lifted its deposit rate to 5.00%. South Africa and Brazil are timing fuel-tax cuts and welfare payments ahead of elections, with Brent near $108 and Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast at 5.22%, above target.

🌏 Central banks hold the line while Pretoria and Brasília spend ahead of ballots
Bank Indonesia held at 5.75% but lifted its deposit rate to 5.00%. South Africa and Brazil are timing fuel-tax cuts and welfare payments ahead of elections, with Brent near $108 and Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast at 5.22%, above target.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 The LPR is on hold again, but the PBOC is testing a lower overnight anchor

China left its one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% for a 17th month. Governor Pan Gongsheng proposed making the 1.25% overnight reverse repo the main policy rate, 15 basis points below the seven-day rate.

🇨🇳 The LPR is on hold again, but the PBOC is testing a lower overnight anchor
China left its one-year loan prime rate at 3.00% for a 17th month. Governor Pan Gongsheng proposed making the 1.25% overnight reverse repo the main policy rate, 15 basis points below the seven-day rate.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.