UK inflation hit 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% and above the 3.4% forecast, driven by fuel. Record debt interest and net debt above £3tn crowd the 28 October Budget, and a Bank of England hike on 5 November is almost fully priced.
UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September, the highest since October 2025 Source
UK consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, above the 3.4% consensus and up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That is the highest annual rate since October 2025. Prices rose 0.4% on the month against a 0.3% forecast. Motor fuels did most of the work: petrol jumped 8.2p in a month to 169.5p a litre, diesel rose 10.7p to 192.5p, and fuel inflation accelerated to 29.8% from 23.0%. The Bank of England's July forecast for this month was 3.0%.
