Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Goolsbee tells markets the Fed is done looking through supply shocks

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says the central bank is done looking through supply shocks, days after a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4.00% and projections pointing to one more increase this year. Soft industrial output and falling housing starts complicate that hawkish signal.

🇺🇸 Goolsbee tells markets the Fed is done looking through supply shocks
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says the central bank is done looking through supply shocks, days after a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4.00% and projections pointing to one more increase this year. Soft industrial output and falling housing starts complicate that hawkish signal.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Germany's next inflation shock already has a calendar date

The Bundesbank says 2027 healthcare reforms will add nearly half a percentage point to inflation, stacking a calendar-certain shock on top of today's energy-driven readings: 2.9% in Germany, 3.2% across the euro area.

🇪🇺 Germany's next inflation shock already has a calendar date
The Bundesbank says 2027 healthcare reforms will add nearly half a percentage point to inflation, stacking a calendar-certain shock on top of today's energy-driven readings: 2.9% in Germany, 3.2% across the euro area.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 BoE turns hawkish on inflation just as UK job vacancies hit a decade low

The BoE held rates at 3.75% and raised its inflation forecast toward 4% by Q1 2027, even as UK job vacancies fell to a decade low of 702,000 and payrolled employment shrank by 145,000 over the year.

🇬🇧 BoE turns hawkish on inflation just as UK job vacancies hit a decade low
The BoE held rates at 3.75% and raised its inflation forecast toward 4% by Q1 2027, even as UK job vacancies fell to a decade low of 702,000 and payrolled employment shrank by 145,000 over the year.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil eyes a sixth rate cut even as its own economists raise their inflation forecast

Brazil's Focus survey now points to a Selic cut to 13.50% even as economists raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 4.92%, a divergence testing the central bank's political independence five weeks before October's election.

🌏 Brazil eyes a sixth rate cut even as its own economists raise their inflation forecast
Brazil's Focus survey now points to a Selic cut to 13.50% even as economists raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 4.92%, a divergence testing the central bank's political independence five weeks before October's election.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China leaves rates alone and sends the yuan to do the talking ahead of Trump-Xi

China held lending rates unchanged for a 16th straight month while the yuan hit its strongest level since January 2023, a goodwill signal ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. Retail sales, investment, and producer prices all missed the mark.

🇨🇳 China leaves rates alone and sends the yuan to do the talking ahead of Trump-Xi
China held lending rates unchanged for a 16th straight month while the yuan hit its strongest level since January 2023, a goodwill signal ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. Retail sales, investment, and producer prices all missed the mark.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.