The Bundesbank's September monthly report did something the past few weeks of Iran-linked energy headlines hadn't managed: it put a number and a start date on the inflation problem that follows this one. German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation ran at 2.9% in August, up from 2.8% in July, and Frankfurt expects it to "remain elevated for the time being." The immediate cause is familiar: fuel and refined oil product prices tied to the Iran conflict, thin gas inventories, and the risk that energy costs bleed into the rest of the basket.
πͺπΊ Germany's next inflation shock already has a calendar date
The day in view
πͺπΊ Germany's next inflation shock already has a calendar date
The Bundesbank says 2027 healthcare reforms will add nearly half a percentage point to inflation, stacking a calendar-certain shock on top of today's energy-driven readings: 2.9% in Germany, 3.2% across the euro area.
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