The BoE held rates at 3.75% and raised its inflation forecast toward 4% by Q1 2027, even as UK job vacancies fell to a decade low of 702,000 and payrolled employment shrank by 145,000 over the year.
Governor Andrew Bailey left the door open to a November hike after three MPC members voted to raise Bank Rate immediately. Source
The Bank of England spent last week doing two things that don't usually happen together: raising its inflation forecast and tolerating three policymakers publicly demanding a hike, while its own labour market data quietly recorded the weakest vacancy signal outside the pandemic since 2014. Markets are reading both releases as a straightforward "hawkish hold." The more useful read is that the data the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is reacting to and the data the market should be watching are starting to pull apart.
