Brazil's Focus survey now points to a Selic cut to 13.50% even as economists raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 4.92%, a divergence testing the central bank's political independence five weeks before October's election.
Monday’s Focus survey priced a sixth 25bp Selic cut by year-end, even as 2026 inflation ticked higher and Copom minutes land a day later with October’s election in view. Source
Brazil's weekly Focus survey, published Monday by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), now points to a year-end Selic, Brazil's benchmark policy rate, of 13.50%, down from 13.75% in the prior week's poll. That embeds one more quarter-point cut on top of last Wednesday's fifth consecutive reduction by Copom, the BCB's rate-setting committee, which took the Selic to 13.75%.
