Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The Fed's about to hike, and CPI isn't the real reason

University of Michigan data shows US year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, evidence the Fed may hike Wednesday to defend its credibility, not just react to last week's hot CPI and PPI reports.

🇺🇸 The Fed's about to hike, and CPI isn't the real reason
University of Michigan data shows US year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, evidence the Fed may hike Wednesday to defend its credibility, not just react to last week's hot CPI and PPI reports.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Bund yields hit 2009 levels as Lagarde warns the energy shock is here to stay

German 10-year yields climbed to about 3.53%, a level last seen in 2009, after the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% and Governing Council members floated further tightening amid a worsening energy-driven inflation outlook.

🇪🇺 Bund yields hit 2009 levels as Lagarde warns the energy shock is here to stay
German 10-year yields climbed to about 3.53%, a level last seen in 2009, after the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% and Governing Council members floated further tightening amid a worsening energy-driven inflation outlook.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK's inflation compass goes dark days before its toughest rate call in years

UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating forecasts, just as the Bank of England's inflation-expectations survey got knocked offline by a pollster switch, days before Thursday's rate decision with markets pricing a rising chance of a hike.

🇬🇧 UK's inflation compass goes dark days before its toughest rate call in years
UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating forecasts, just as the Bank of England's inflation-expectations survey got knocked offline by a pollster switch, days before Thursday's rate decision with markets pricing a rising chance of a hike.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's inflation just hit a series high, and the RBI is betting its reserves can absorb the oil shock

India's consumer prices rose 4.82% year-on-year in August, a series high, and the RBI is leaning on a record foreign-reserve build rather than a rate hike to absorb the fallout from a drone strike that knocked out a major Saudi pipeline.

🌏 India's inflation just hit a series high, and the RBI is betting its reserves can absorb the oil shock
India's consumer prices rose 4.82% year-on-year in August, a series high, and the RBI is leaning on a record foreign-reserve build rather than a rate hike to absorb the fallout from a drone strike that knocked out a major Saudi pipeline.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's credit engine stalls even as the yuan pushes past 6.70

China's new bank lending crashed to just ¥60bn in August, a fraction of forecasts, in the same week the yuan broke past 6.70 to the dollar for the first time in three years. Currency strength and slumping credit demand are now pulling in opposite directions.

🇨🇳 China's credit engine stalls even as the yuan pushes past 6.70
China's new bank lending crashed to just ¥60bn in August, a fraction of forecasts, in the same week the yuan broke past 6.70 to the dollar for the first time in three years. Currency strength and slumping credit demand are now pulling in opposite directions.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.