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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed's about to hike, and CPI isn't the real reason

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Fed's about to hike, and CPI isn't the real reason

University of Michigan data shows US year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, evidence the Fed may hike Wednesday to defend its credibility, not just react to last week's hot CPI and PPI reports.

Two charts: left line chart of FedWatch hike vs cut probability Jan–Sep 2026; right FOMC dots vs OIS implied rates for 2026–longer term.
MacroMicro notes hotter-than-expected core CPI for a second month helped swing Fed funds futures to about 90% odds of a September hike, with oil near $100 and a firm PPI print closing the hold-or-hike debate. Source

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