Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Housing starts jumped 19%, but permits are telling a different story

Housing starts surged 19.0% to a 1.427 million annualized pace in June, but building permits fell to 1.367 million, missing forecasts and pointing to a multifamily backlog rather than real demand. Industrial output stayed flat and Fed officials sent mixed signals on inflation.

🇺🇸 Housing starts jumped 19%, but permits are telling a different story
Housing starts surged 19.0% to a 1.427 million annualized pace in June, but building permits fell to 1.367 million, missing forecasts and pointing to a multifamily backlog rather than real demand. Industrial output stayed flat and Fed officials sent mixed signals on inflation.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation converges toward target, and the current account surplus is doing the heavy lifting

Eurozone headline inflation cooled to 2.8% year-on-year in June, matching forecasts, while the current account surplus surged to €25.1bn, beating expectations by roughly 40% and pointing to weak domestic demand rather than export strength.

🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation converges toward target, and the current account surplus is doing the heavy lifting
Eurozone headline inflation cooled to 2.8% year-on-year in June, matching forecasts, while the current account surplus surged to €25.1bn, beating expectations by roughly 40% and pointing to weak domestic demand rather than export strength.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK growth holds at 0.1%, but that's the last thing the Bank of England wanted to see

UK GDP rose 0.1% in May, matching consensus, but wage growth at 4.4% and services inflation at 3.7% leave the Bank of England's rate committee little room to cut. Markets price an 86% chance of a hold on July 30.

🇬🇧 UK growth holds at 0.1%, but that's the last thing the Bank of England wanted to see
UK GDP rose 0.1% in May, matching consensus, but wage growth at 4.4% and services inflation at 3.7% leave the Bank of England's rate committee little room to cut. Markets price an 86% chance of a hold on July 30.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's disinflation is running faster than the Selic cutting cycle

Brazil's IGP-10 wholesale gauge fell −1.1% in July and the IBC-Br growth proxy slowed to 0.1% in May. The question now is whether Selic rate cuts are keeping pace with disinflation arriving faster than forecast.

🌏 Brazil's disinflation is running faster than the Selic cutting cycle
Brazil's IGP-10 wholesale gauge fell −1.1% in July and the IBC-Br growth proxy slowed to 0.1% in May. The question now is whether Selic rate cuts are keeping pace with disinflation arriving faster than forecast.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Hong Kong's jobless rate is stuck at 3.7%, but that's not this week's real story

Hong Kong's jobless rate held at 3.7% in June, matching May, while China's data calendar stayed quiet ahead of the Politburo's mid-year economic meeting. Producer prices remain in deflation for a second straight year.

🇨🇳 Hong Kong's jobless rate is stuck at 3.7%, but that's not this week's real story
Hong Kong's jobless rate held at 3.7% in June, matching May, while China's data calendar stayed quiet ahead of the Politburo's mid-year economic meeting. Producer prices remain in deflation for a second straight year.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.