Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Cook's hawkish vote shows Trump's Fed chair pick can't cut rates alone

Fed governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump tried to remove from the Board, said she backed the June rate hold over tariff-driven inflation risk, proof that chair Kevin Warsh cannot cut rates without committee support. June retail sales cooled as the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index beat sharply.

🇺🇸 Cook's hawkish vote shows Trump's Fed chair pick can't cut rates alone
Fed governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump tried to remove from the Board, said she backed the June rate hold over tariff-driven inflation risk, proof that chair Kevin Warsh cannot cut rates without committee support. June retail sales cooled as the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index beat sharply.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone slips into a trade deficit as industrial output stalls and Italian inflation undershoots

The eurozone posted a surprise €1bn trade deficit in May as industrial output growth slowed to 0.1%, while Italian consumer prices undershot forecasts at 3.0% year-on-year, adding to the case for the ECB to hold rates steady.

🇪🇺 Eurozone slips into a trade deficit as industrial output stalls and Italian inflation undershoots
The eurozone posted a surprise €1bn trade deficit in May as industrial output growth slowed to 0.1%, while Italian consumer prices undershot forecasts at 3.0% year-on-year, adding to the case for the ECB to hold rates steady.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK growth beat can't hide a 5% gilt yield problem Burnham can't cut his way out of

UK GDP rose 0.1% in May, beating forecasts, but 10-year gilt yields topped 5.10%, the highest since 2008, as an oil-driven inflation shock leaves the Bank of England unable to cut rates into stalling growth ahead of Andy Burnham's premiership.

🇬🇧 UK growth beat can't hide a 5% gilt yield problem Burnham can't cut his way out of
UK GDP rose 0.1% in May, beating forecasts, but 10-year gilt yields topped 5.10%, the highest since 2008, as an oil-driven inflation shock leaves the Bank of England unable to cut rates into stalling growth ahead of Andy Burnham's premiership.
Macro Soup

🌏 Korea's rate hike is the good version of EM tightening, Iran's chokepoint threat is the bad one

South Korea's central bank raised its base rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first hike since January 2023, backed by a TSMC-driven export boom. Iran's reported threat to close a second shipping chokepoint could force other EM central banks into defensive hikes of their own.

🌏 Korea's rate hike is the good version of EM tightening, Iran's chokepoint threat is the bad one
South Korea's central bank raised its base rate 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first hike since January 2023, backed by a TSMC-driven export boom. Iran's reported threat to close a second shipping chokepoint could force other EM central banks into defensive hikes of their own.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's export surge looks like a race against the tariff clock, not a demand rebound

China's economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, below the 4.5% forecast. Exports surged 27% to $412.39bn as firms rushed shipments ahead of the November 10 US-China tariff truce deadline, while credit growth and fixed-asset investment stayed weak.

🇨🇳 China's export surge looks like a race against the tariff clock, not a demand rebound
China's economy grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, below the 4.5% forecast. Exports surged 27% to $412.39bn as firms rushed shipments ahead of the November 10 US-China tariff truce deadline, while credit growth and fixed-asset investment stayed weak.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.