Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Services PMIs cool but Waller's speech is the week's real signal

US services PMI stayed above 50 in a data-thin holiday week, S&P Global Composite at 51.5, ISM Non-Manufacturing at 54.5, but Fed Governor Christopher Waller's scheduled remarks are the real signal to watch ahead of the next Fed policy meeting.

🇺🇸 Services PMIs cool but Waller's speech is the week's real signal
US services PMI stayed above 50 in a data-thin holiday week, S&P Global Composite at 51.5, ISM Non-Manufacturing at 54.5, but Fed Governor Christopher Waller's scheduled remarks are the real signal to watch ahead of the next Fed policy meeting.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone sentiment jumps as construction stays stuck in a five-quarter recession

Eurozone investor confidence just posted one of its sharpest monthly rebounds on record, but construction is stuck in a five-quarter downturn, leaving the ECB with conflicting signals ahead of its policy decision this month.

🇪🇺 Eurozone sentiment jumps as construction stays stuck in a five-quarter recession
Eurozone investor confidence just posted one of its sharpest monthly rebounds on record, but construction is stuck in a five-quarter downturn, leaving the ECB with conflicting signals ahead of its policy decision this month.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK construction PMI stays pinned near pandemic lows as BoE's Mann keeps eyeing wages, not cranes

UK construction contracted for a 15th straight month in June, the S&P Global Construction PMI at 38.4, its worst reading outside the 2020 lockdown, while BoE policymaker Catherine Mann keeps her inflation focus on wages rather than the building slowdown.

🇬🇧 UK construction PMI stays pinned near pandemic lows as BoE's Mann keeps eyeing wages, not cranes
UK construction contracted for a 15th straight month in June, the S&P Global Construction PMI at 38.4, its worst reading outside the 2020 lockdown, while BoE policymaker Catherine Mann keeps her inflation focus on wages rather than the building slowdown.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's Focus survey hasn't moved in 57 weeks, even as the market prices 250 basis points of cuts

Brazil's Focus survey points to roughly 250 basis points of central bank policy rate cuts by year-end 2026, yet its 2027 rate forecast has been frozen at 10.50% for 57 straight weeks, an unusual stretch of consensus stability.

🌏 Brazil's Focus survey hasn't moved in 57 weeks, even as the market prices 250 basis points of cuts
Brazil's Focus survey points to roughly 250 basis points of central bank policy rate cuts by year-end 2026, yet its 2027 rate forecast has been frozen at 10.50% for 57 straight weeks, an unusual stretch of consensus stability.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's data calendar goes quiet before a four-day reckoning starting July 7

China's producer prices jumped 3.9% year-on-year in May while consumer inflation stayed soft at 1.2%, setting up a four-day stretch of trade, inflation, and credit data starting July 7 that will decide whether Beijing's reflation is real or borrowed from an energy shock.

🇨🇳 China's data calendar goes quiet before a four-day reckoning starting July 7
China's producer prices jumped 3.9% year-on-year in May while consumer inflation stayed soft at 1.2%, setting up a four-day stretch of trade, inflation, and credit data starting July 7 that will decide whether Beijing's reflation is real or borrowed from an energy shock.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.