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🌏 Brazil's Focus survey hasn't moved in 57 weeks, even as the market prices 250 basis points of cuts

🌏 Brazil's Focus survey hasn't moved in 57 weeks, even as the market prices 250 basis points of cuts

Brazil's Focus survey points to roughly 250 basis points of central bank policy rate cuts by year-end 2026, yet its 2027 rate forecast has been frozen at 10.50% for 57 straight weeks, an unusual stretch of consensus stability.

Dashboard showing 14.00% end-2026 Selic forecast, 4.18% end-2027 IPCA forecast with upward revision note, and yellow line chart of Selic path from 2026 to 2029.
Brazil's BCB Focus Market Readout holds the year-end 2026 Selic forecast at 14.00% with 2027 inflation expectations revised higher for the seventh consecutive week. Source

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