Welcome to your weekly macro roundup. This comprehensive edition covers the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets with in-depth analysis of the week's most significant economic developments and what they mean for markets ahead.
🇺🇸 June's 57,000 jobs miss hides a bigger labor force exodus
Payrolls rose just 57,000 in June while the household survey showed employment falling by 507,000. Fed minutes reveal new chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tilt, with nine of eighteen officials now eyeing another rate hike this year.
🇪🇺 The ECB hiked into an energy shock that was already fading
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 to counter an oil-driven inflation spike. By the time flash data landed weeks later, euro area inflation had already fallen to 2.8%, with the very energy component that justified the hike easing in the same month.
🇬🇧 UK growth is contracting while inflation refuses to fall, and the BoE is walking into a split vote
UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April while inflation held at 2.8%, well above the Bank of England's 2.0% target, a mix that points toward a split vote at the July 30 Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
🌏 EM's 2026 rally hides two very different trades under one index
South Korea's Kospi has nearly doubled in 2026 on an SK Hynix and Samsung AI chip rally, while Indonesia's central bank has hiked rates 100 basis points since May to defend the rupiah. Two unrelated stories, one "Emerging Markets" index number.
🇨🇳 China's four-year-high producer prices are an energy shock already in retreat
China's PPI rose 4.1% year on year in June, the strongest gain since 2022, but slipped to −0.3% month-on-month as the Iran-conflict oil spike fades. Consumer price growth cooled to a five-month low of 1.0%.
That wraps up this week's macro roundup. We'll be back with daily updates throughout the week and another comprehensive weekly edition next time. If you know someone who would appreciate this analysis, feel free to share. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.
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