Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 US manufacturing hits a four-year high while shedding jobs at the fastest pace since COVID

PCE inflation rose to 4.1% year-over-year in May, a three-year high, as Q1 GDP was revised up to +2.1%. The June flash manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high of 55.7, but its employment sub-index contracted at the fastest pace since COVID lockdowns.

🇺🇸 US manufacturing hits a four-year high while shedding jobs at the fastest pace since COVID
PCE inflation rose to 4.1% year-over-year in May, a three-year high, as Q1 GDP was revised up to +2.1%. The June flash manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high of 55.7, but its employment sub-index contracted at the fastest pace since COVID lockdowns.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Italy's BTP spread is near post-Lehman lows even as the ECB hikes. The conventional playbook doesn't hold.

Italy's 10-year BTP cleared at 3.63% today with the BTP-Bund spread near 61 basis points, despite an ECB rate hike two weeks ago. The spread playbook that governed prior hiking cycles doesn't apply anymore, and the reasons are structural.

🇪🇺 Italy's BTP spread is near post-Lehman lows even as the ECB hikes. The conventional playbook doesn't hold.
Italy's 10-year BTP cleared at 3.63% today with the BTP-Bund spread near 61 basis points, despite an ECB rate hike two weeks ago. The spread playbook that governed prior hiking cycles doesn't apply anymore, and the reasons are structural.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK retail hits an 18-month low, and the BoE's hawks still want to hike

The CBI's Distributive Trades Survey fell to −54 in June, an 18-month low, even as Bank of England hawks debate hiking from 3.75% into a consumer slump already running at near-crisis severity.

🇬🇧 UK retail hits an 18-month low, and the BoE's hawks still want to hike
The CBI's Distributive Trades Survey fell to −54 in June, an 18-month low, even as Bank of England hawks debate hiking from 3.75% into a consumer slump already running at near-crisis severity.
Macro Soup

🌏 Brazil's external accounts are self-financing while Singapore's semiconductor output rolls over

Brazil's May FDI hit $7.97bn against a $5.75bn forecast, the current account came in under consensus, and unemployment held at 5.6%. Singapore industrial production decelerated to 13.0% year on year from 16.5%, with a monthly contraction that looks like a cycle turn.

🌏 Brazil's external accounts are self-financing while Singapore's semiconductor output rolls over
Brazil's May FDI hit $7.97bn against a $5.75bn forecast, the current account came in under consensus, and unemployment held at 5.6%. Singapore industrial production decelerated to 13.0% year on year from 16.5%, with a monthly contraction that looks like a cycle turn.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's record trade windfall cannot fix what the balance sheet is breaking

China's May trade surplus hit $105bn on record exports of $376.78bn. The official manufacturing PMI held at 50.0, services contracted, and the yuan weakened for a second straight week. Trade and domestic demand are telling different stories.

🇨🇳 China's record trade windfall cannot fix what the balance sheet is breaking
China's May trade surplus hit $105bn on record exports of $376.78bn. The official manufacturing PMI held at 50.0, services contracted, and the yuan weakened for a second straight week. Trade and domestic demand are telling different stories.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.