Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 The Fed is studying whether stablecoins are quietly eroding the dollar's plumbing

Waller opened the Fed's annual dollar conference by centering its research on whether stablecoin settlement is already moving CIP spreads and undermining dollar liquidity oversight. June flash PMIs land Tuesday; May manufacturing printed 55.3 against a 53.8 forecast.

🇪🇺 The ECB is hiking into its own recovery as services inflation re-accelerates

The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% as eurozone services inflation jumped to 3.5% year-on-year in May, its sharpest monthly acceleration since 2023. Consumer confidence recovered to −17.7 in June, but the credit-cycle tailwind is now running into a fresh tightening cycle.

🇪🇺 The ECB is hiking into its own recovery as services inflation re-accelerates
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% as eurozone services inflation jumped to 3.5% year-on-year in May, its sharpest monthly acceleration since 2023. Consumer confidence recovered to −17.7 in June, but the credit-cycle tailwind is now running into a fresh tightening cycle.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK services tip into contraction and inflation re-accelerates, leaving the BoE without a clean move

UK flash composite PMI fell to 49.7 in June, with the services index contracting to 49.3, while services CPI re-accelerated to 3.7%. Two MPC members already voted to hike at the June meeting. The BoE has no clean move here.

🇬🇧 UK services tip into contraction and inflation re-accelerates, leaving the BoE without a clean move
UK flash composite PMI fell to 49.7 in June, with the services index contracting to 49.3, while services CPI re-accelerated to 3.7%. Two MPC members already voted to hike at the June meeting. The BoE has no clean move here.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's core industries headline hides a fossil fuel retreat, not a capex slowdown

India's eight core industries grew just 0.5% YoY in May, but fossil fuel contraction (coal −9.3%, crude oil −4.6%) drove the miss while cement rose 8.4% and electricity generation climbed 8.7%. Read it as energy transition, not a capex stumble.

🌏 India's core industries headline hides a fossil fuel retreat, not a capex slowdown
India's eight core industries grew just 0.5% YoY in May, but fossil fuel contraction (coal −9.3%, crude oil −4.6%) drove the miss while cement rose 8.4% and electricity generation climbed 8.7%. Read it as energy transition, not a capex stumble.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's FDI contraction is slowing, but the capital replacing Western inflows is a weaker grade

Utilized FDI fell 8.6% year on year through May 2026, an improvement on the 10.3% drop through April. High-tech inflows are rising but increasingly sourced from European and Asian capital that is more transactional and less technology-intensive than what it replaces.

🇨🇳 China's FDI contraction is slowing, but the capital replacing Western inflows is a weaker grade
Utilized FDI fell 8.6% year on year through May 2026, an improvement on the 10.3% drop through April. High-tech inflows are rising but increasingly sourced from European and Asian capital that is more transactional and less technology-intensive than what it replaces.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.