Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Empire State slumps to 5.7 as stagflationary data hands Warsh the perfect case for silence

Empire State fell to 5.7 in June from 19.6, badly missing the 13.2 consensus. New orders collapsed to 3.5 while prices paid held at 61.0. The stagflationary split hands the Fed no clean signal heading into Warsh's first FOMC meeting.

🇺🇸 Empire State slumps to 5.7 as stagflationary data hands Warsh the perfect case for silence
Empire State fell to 5.7 in June from 19.6, badly missing the 13.2 consensus. New orders collapsed to 3.5 while prices paid held at 61.0. The stagflationary split hands the Fed no clean signal heading into Warsh's first FOMC meeting.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Germany's wholesale price dip was a mineral oil tax cut, not disinflation

Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell −0.6% month-over-month in May, but a mineral oil tax cut drove a −7.3% collapse in that single category, masking persistent sub-component inflation and complicating the ECB's case for a September follow-on hike.

🇪🇺 Germany's wholesale price dip was a mineral oil tax cut, not disinflation
Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell −0.6% month-over-month in May, but a mineral oil tax cut drove a −7.3% collapse in that single category, masking persistent sub-component inflation and complicating the ECB's case for a September follow-on hike.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The UK rate hold is almost certain, but the June 18 vote count is wide open

The BoE rate hold at 3.75% on June 18 is near-certain. Whether Tuesday's 3.0% CPI print and services inflation near 3.7% crack the MPC's 8-1 vote split is the live question; money markets already price 50 basis points of additional tightening over 12 months.

🇬🇧 The UK rate hold is almost certain, but the June 18 vote count is wide open
The BoE rate hold at 3.75% on June 18 is near-certain. Whether Tuesday's 3.0% CPI print and services inflation near 3.7% crack the MPC's 8-1 vote split is the live question; money markets already price 50 basis points of additional tightening over 12 months.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's WPI beats at 9.68%, but the benchmark series only launched today

India's Wholesale Price Index rose 9.68% year-on-year in May, beating the 9.10% consensus on an inaugural new-methodology print with no backward-comparable history. A petrol and diesel price hike is set to compress the Reserve Bank of India's room to cut rates further.

🌏 India's WPI beats at 9.68%, but the benchmark series only launched today
India's Wholesale Price Index rose 9.68% year-on-year in May, beating the 9.10% consensus on an inaugural new-methodology print with no backward-comparable history. A petrol and diesel price hike is set to compress the Reserve Bank of India's room to cut rates further.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's factory output climbs while the consumer stalls, and the gap is no longer cyclical

Industrial production rose 4.3% YoY in May while retail sales printed flat at 0.0%. Four years into the property correction, the household wealth effect is broken and Beijing's toolkit has not fixed it.

🇨🇳 China's factory output climbs while the consumer stalls, and the gap is no longer cyclical
Industrial production rose 4.3% YoY in May while retail sales printed flat at 0.0%. Four years into the property correction, the household wealth effect is broken and Beijing's toolkit has not fixed it.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.