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🇬🇧 The UK rate hold is almost certain, but the June 18 vote count is wide open
The day in view

🇬🇧 The UK rate hold is almost certain, but the June 18 vote count is wide open

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom 3 min read

The BoE rate hold at 3.75% on June 18 is near-certain. Whether Tuesday's 3.0% CPI print and services inflation near 3.7% crack the MPC's 8-1 vote split is the live question; money markets already price 50 basis points of additional tightening over 12 months.

Line chart of Fed, ECB, and BoE balance sheets indexed to July 2024=100 from 2022 to 2026.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey defended the central bank's gilt sales policy amid criticism, as markets await the MPC decision on 18 June. Source

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