Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Warsh's first FOMC statement carries more signal than the 97%-priced hold

Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16-17; a 97%-priced hold is expected, but statement language will determine whether back-end rate hike pricing, already above 50% for December, firms further.

🇺🇸 Warsh's first FOMC statement carries more signal than the 97%-priced hold
Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16-17; a 97%-priced hold is expected, but statement language will determine whether back-end rate hike pricing, already above 50% for December, firms further.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Eurozone services hit 3.5% while the front end prices June as terminal

Eurozone services HICP hit 3.5% year-on-year in May's flash estimate, up 50 basis points from April. The German 2-year Schatz cleared at 2.59%, still pricing June as the ECB's terminal hike.

🇪🇺 Eurozone services hit 3.5% while the front end prices June as terminal
Eurozone services HICP hit 3.5% year-on-year in May's flash estimate, up 50 basis points from April. The German 2-year Schatz cleared at 2.59%, still pricing June as the ECB's terminal hike.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK house prices post first fall of 2026 on a confidence shock that rate cuts cannot cure

UK house prices fell 0.6% in May, their first monthly drop of 2026, even as mortgage approvals hit a 14-month high of 65,940. Nationwide attributes the miss to consumer confidence at its lowest since late 2023, not credit conditions, limiting the Bank of England's rate-cut potency.

🇬🇧 UK house prices post first fall of 2026 on a confidence shock that rate cuts cannot cure
UK house prices fell 0.6% in May, their first monthly drop of 2026, even as mortgage approvals hit a 14-month high of 65,940. Nationwide attributes the miss to consumer confidence at its lowest since late 2023, not credit conditions, limiting the Bank of England's rate-cut potency.
Macro Soup

🌏 India's PMI resilience masks a 45-month input cost spike the RBI is cutting into

Manufacturing PMI hit a three-month high of 55.0 in May, but India's input costs reached a 45-month high. The RBI is cutting rates into that build, and there is no policy brake on pass-through to consumer prices.

🌏 India's PMI resilience masks a 45-month input cost spike the RBI is cutting into
Manufacturing PMI hit a three-month high of 55.0 in May, but India's input costs reached a 45-month high. The RBI is cutting rates into that build, and there is no policy brake on pass-through to consumer prices.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's record April surplus masks an ASEAN re-routing play

China's April trade surplus hit $84.8bn on record exports of $359.4bn, but the US-China bilateral surplus compressed to $23.1bn as Southeast Asian intermediaries absorb Chinese semi-finished goods. The headline surplus is a routing story.

🇨🇳 China's record April surplus masks an ASEAN re-routing play
China's April trade surplus hit $84.8bn on record exports of $359.4bn, but the US-China bilateral surplus compressed to $23.1bn as Southeast Asian intermediaries absorb Chinese semi-finished goods. The headline surplus is a routing story.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.