Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 April PCE: the headline says 3.8%, the Fed's actual signal says something much quieter

April headline PCE ran at 3.8% year-on-year while supercore printed +0.12% month-on-month, roughly 1.4% annualized and well below the Fed's 2% target. Q1 2026 GDP was revised to 1.6% annualized as corporate profits collapsed quarter-over-quarter.

🇺🇸 April PCE: the headline says 3.8%, the Fed's actual signal says something much quieter
April headline PCE ran at 3.8% year-on-year while supercore printed +0.12% month-on-month, roughly 1.4% annualized and well below the Fed's 2% target. Q1 2026 GDP was revised to 1.6% annualized as corporate profits collapsed quarter-over-quarter.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 The ECB hits neutral just as inflation jumps to 3.0% and Spain's consumers pull back

ECB minutes from April 30 land as the deposit rate sits at 2.0% and Eurozone headline inflation re-accelerates to 3.0% on an energy shock. Spanish retail sales fell to +0.8% year-on-year from 4.1% in March. June is now a live decision.

🇪🇺 The ECB hits neutral just as inflation jumps to 3.0% and Spain's consumers pull back
ECB minutes from April 30 land as the deposit rate sits at 2.0% and Eurozone headline inflation re-accelerates to 3.0% on an energy shock. Spanish retail sales fell to +0.8% year-on-year from 4.1% in March. June is now a live decision.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 UK CPI at 2.8% is the easy part. The DMO still has £252bn to sell into a 4.85% gilt market.

UK CPI fell to 2.8% in April from 3.3%, but Ofgem's energy cap reset did most of the work. The DMO's £252bn issuance remit is the harder test, with 10-year gilt yields near 4.85%.

🇬🇧 UK CPI at 2.8% is the easy part. The DMO still has £252bn to sell into a 4.85% gilt market.
UK CPI fell to 2.8% in April from 3.3%, but Ofgem's energy cap reset did most of the work. The DMO's £252bn issuance remit is the harder test, with 10-year gilt yields near 4.85%.
Macro Soup

🌏 SARB holds at 6.75% for a third straight meeting as April CPI spikes 90bps. The Iran war is closing EM central banks' easing room.

South Africa's SARB held at 6.75% as April CPI surged 90bps to 4.0% on Iran-war energy pass-through. The bank's own revised forecasts now put a late-year hike squarely in play.

🌏 SARB holds at 6.75% for a third straight meeting as April CPI spikes 90bps. The Iran war is closing EM central banks' easing room.
South Africa's SARB held at 6.75% as April CPI surged 90bps to 4.0% on Iran-war energy pass-through. The bank's own revised forecasts now put a late-year hike squarely in play.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 Hong Kong exports up 43%: China is deep in the AI hardware boom and keeping its researchers at home

Hong Kong April exports rose 43% year-on-year to a cycle high on AI hardware demand. Beijing simultaneously formalized travel restrictions for private-sector AI researchers at firms including DeepSeek and Alibaba.

🇨🇳 Hong Kong exports up 43%: China is deep in the AI hardware boom and keeping its researchers at home
Hong Kong April exports rose 43% year-on-year to a cycle high on AI hardware demand. Beijing simultaneously formalized travel restrictions for private-sector AI researchers at firms including DeepSeek and Alibaba.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.