April headline PCE ran at 3.8% year-on-year while supercore printed +0.12% month-on-month, roughly 1.4% annualized and well below the Fed's 2% target. Q1 2026 GDP was revised to 1.6% annualized as corporate profits collapsed quarter-over-quarter.
Core goods prices rose at the largest annual pace in decades outside the post-pandemic spike, per Nick Timiraos' breakdown of April PCE data. Source
