Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.
🇺🇸 April core PCE is set to re-accelerate to 3.3%, and there's no clean Fed response
April core PCE is forecast to re-accelerate to 3.3% year-on-year from March's 3.2%, landing on a Fed split 8-4 at its last vote with dissents in both directions and near-zero market odds of a 2026 cut.
🇪🇺 The ECB is probably hiking in June. Its own financial stability team just warned the market isn't priced for the shock.
The ECB's May 2026 Financial Stability Review warns of sudden repricing risk as June hike probability hits 80%. With the deposit rate at 2.00% and euro area CPI at 3.0%, the ECB's own planning scenarios are already overtaken by events.
🇬🇧 Iran's shipping disruptions are landing in UK shop prices, and the BoE's room to cut in June is shrinking
UK shop prices rose 1.2% year-on-year in May, beating the 1.1% forecast, as non-food inflation flipped from -0.1% to +0.5% on Iran shipping disruptions. The BoE's June 18 cut window just got smaller.
🌏 The EM recovery rested on three pillars. All three are cracking.
Brazil's IPCA-15 is forecast to breach the BCB's 4.50% ceiling at 4.55% YoY. Korea's incoming governor signals rate hikes. USMCA talks are putting Mexico's nearshoring investment model at risk.
🇨🇳 China just classified AI researchers at DeepSeek and Alibaba alongside its nuclear scientists
China extended overseas travel restrictions to top AI researchers at private firms including DeepSeek and Alibaba, classifying the talent alongside nuclear weapons scientists. New home prices fell 3.5% year-on-year in April, a 34th consecutive monthly decline.
That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.
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