Good morning, macro enthusiasts. Here's your daily roundup covering the United States, Europe, and key emerging markets. We cut through the noise to deliver the essential facts, key surprises, and meaningful context from each region in one place.

🇺🇸 Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%. The PCE surge to 3.5% is the actual problem.

Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized, below the 2.3% consensus. Headline PCE jumped from 2.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in the same quarter, and that's the print that matters for the rate path.

🇺🇸 Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%. The PCE surge to 3.5% is the actual problem.
Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized, below the 2.3% consensus. Headline PCE jumped from 2.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in the same quarter, and that's the print that matters for the rate path.
Macro Soup

🇪🇺 Euro area manufacturing is back above 50 for a second month — the ECB plans to hike into it anyway

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI confirmed at 52.2 in April, up from 51.6 in March, with Spain surging from 48.7 to 51.7. ECB June hike probability priced above 90% as the SPF cut 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% and raised core inflation to 2.2%.

🇪🇺 Euro area manufacturing is back above 50 for a second month — the ECB plans to hike into it anyway
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI confirmed at 52.2 in April, up from 51.6 in March, with Spain surging from 48.7 to 51.7. ECB June hike probability priced above 90% as the SPF cut 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% and raised core inflation to 2.2%.
Macro Soup

🇬🇧 The BoE held rates. One member wanted to hike. That disagreement is the story.

The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, with a lone dissenter calling for a hike to 4.00%. CPI is running at 3.3% against near-zero growth of 0.2% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2. The stagflation bind is tightening.

🇬🇧 The BoE held rates. One member wanted to hike. That disagreement is the story.
The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, with a lone dissenter calling for a hike to 4.00%. CPI is running at 3.3% against near-zero growth of 0.2% in Q1 and 0.1% in Q2. The stagflation bind is tightening.
Macro Soup

🌍 EM manufacturing is fracturing into three blocs — and a Hormuz incident threatens the leaders

Brazil and South Africa jumped to 52.6 in April's PMI sweep, India held at 54.7, and Russia extended its contraction to an 11th month at 48.1. A Hormuz shipping incident threatens to hit the EM winners hardest.

🌍 EM manufacturing is fracturing into three blocs — and a Hormuz incident threatens the leaders
Brazil and South Africa jumped to 52.6 in April's PMI sweep, India held at 54.7, and Russia extended its contraction to an 11th month at 48.1. A Hormuz shipping incident threatens to hit the EM winners hardest.
Macro Soup

🇨🇳 China's PMIs split in April: manufacturing held, services contracted, and stimulus still hasn't closed the demand gap

Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in April from 50.4; services slipped into contraction. The 145% US tariff wall is landing on a domestic demand gap that stimulus hasn't closed, and the pre-tariff order cushion that propped up the headline won't last into Q2.

🇨🇳 China's PMIs split in April: manufacturing held, services contracted, and stimulus still hasn't closed the demand gap
Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in April from 50.4; services slipped into contraction. The 145% US tariff wall is landing on a domestic demand gap that stimulus hasn't closed, and the pre-tariff order cushion that propped up the headline won't last into Q2.
Macro Soup

That's your daily macro roundup. For more detailed regional deep dives, check out our weekly editions. If you found this useful, feel free to forward it along. More signal, less noise, as ever. Cheers.