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🇺🇸 Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%. The PCE surge to 3.5% is the actual problem.
The day in view

🇺🇸 Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%. The PCE surge to 3.5% is the actual problem.

Macro Soup Newsroom Macro Soup Newsroom 3 min read

Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized, below the 2.3% consensus. Headline PCE jumped from 2.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in the same quarter, and that's the print that matters for the rate path.

Line chart showing US real final sales to private domestic purchasers annualized growth rates
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew at a 2.5% annualized rate in Q1 2026, in line with recent trends. Source Source

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